EU & UK: Barley crop approaching pivotal point amid dryness concerns

The European barley crop is approaching a very pivotal point as dryness in northern France and Germany is raising concerns, since no meaningful rain has fallen for the past two weeks, RMI Analytics said in their May report.

There is some potential for relief next week in the dry regions. If the rain falls, these crop concerns will be alleviated for the time being. If the rain does not fall, concern will expand further and production estimates will begin to drift lower, the analysts said.

RMI Analytics’ EU27+UK production estimate remains at 60 mln tonnes, but a reduction in yields is possible as crop ratings are falling slightly in France (still very good versus the past five years).

A big question remains in regard to Ukraine and Europe (France and approval of Denmark by China) is expected to continue to see higher export demand in the absence of the Black Sea. The result is further emptying of barley ending stocks, which is playing a key role in the current price environment.

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